我爱记歌词

一 |     本文来自微信公众号：财联社 （ID：cailianpress），作者：潇湘                    20世纪60年代初，“股神”巴菲特曾做出过购买白银的精明举动，因为他当时认为美国已不再具备铸造银币的经济可行性。

二 |                    当时，10美分、25美分和50美分硬币的含银量高达90%，这些硬币的金属价值(或熔化价值)接近其面值。

三 |     On a balmy summer day in mid-August of 2021, the 20-year US-led nation-building project in Afghanistan came to an abrupt end. Following a 10-day blitzkrieg offensive in which the Taliban* captured 32 of the country’s 34 provinces with little resistance, the militants encircled and then entered Kabul and caused its government to flee, all while US and coalition forces, diplomats, and intelligence agents were still evacuating.,Afghanistan has been mired in foreign-backed civil conflict for generations, with the US-led invasion of the country in 2001 ensuing 23 years after the CIA kicked off Operation Cyclone - a covert action involving the deployment of jihadist fighters and tens of billions of dollars’ worth of weapons and cash to Afghanistan to fight a fledgling Soviet-backed government.,“We have to look at the history – the United States created the Afghan mujahedeen against the Soviet Union, when the Soviet Union came to help Afghanistan…That Islamic fundamentalism which includes Taliban, Mujahideen, ISIS [Daesh]** and others was created by the West,” says Dr. Zalmay Gulzad, a specialist on Afghan politics and professor of social sciences at Harold Washington College in Chicago.,WorldA Tale of Two Withdrawals: Why Soviet and US Pull-Outs From Afghanistan Were So Different18 August 2021, 04:00 GMT,In the mid-1990s, a few years after the end of the Cold War, Zbigniew Brzezinski, national security advisor to President Jimmy Carter, boasted that the overarching goal of the US project in Afghanistan was to “make the Soviets bleed for as much and as long as is possible,” and to coordinate with the intelligence services from the UK, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and other countries to make this happen.,Over four decades on, this strategy remains central to Washington’s calculations, Dr. Gulzad says, comparing US attempts to now use the Taliban to stir up trouble along Russia’s soft underbelly in Central Asia to the NATO proxy conflict against Moscow in Ukraine. Iran is another major target of US geopolitical ambitions, and Washington would like to play on the differences between the Sunni Taliban and the Shia Iranian state to “create problems” for the Islamic Republic, the academic argues.,Taliban Promise Safety for Resistance Leaders Including Ahmad Massoud as They Meet in Tehran10 January, 13:57 GMT,Graveyard of Empires,Brown University’s Costs of War project has calculated that the War in Afghanistan cost the United States alone more than $2.3 trillion, equivalent to $300 million per day for nearly 20 straight years. Notwithstanding the extravagant spending, and the rotational deployment of over 800,000 US troops and tens of thousands of personnel from over three dozen allied nations over the past generation, the Afghanistan project, once described by Harvard academic and chickenhawk Michael Ignatieff as a “humanitarian” “nation-building lite” adventure, has failed spectacularly.,The causes are legion, ranging from the pervasive corruption of Afghanistan’s political institutions and security structures (whose true fragility was demonstrated in August 2021), to the coalition’s tolerance for and even cooperation with unsavory warlords, drug traffickers, and even child sex criminals, and the imperious nature of the Western-backed project itself.,“It was a lost battle from the beginning,” says Dr. Swasti Rao, an associate fellow at the Europe and Eurasia Center at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses in New Delhi.,US 'Lost Track' of Afghan War Aims, Says Retired Marine General12 August, 17:00 GMT,“One of the problems with the US is that it wishes to see the entire world in its own mirror image, what is called the liberal world order comprising of free market and democracy. This approach has a problem when enforced top down without taking account the regional and grassroots realities, cultural sensibilities of the people at hand. The government of Ashraf Ghani was never a popular government with massive charges of corruption that the Afghan people did not identify with,” Rao explains.,The researcher noted that all around the world, but in West Asia in particular, the “project of the liberal order of which the US considers itself a custodian” has met with failure.,“After 20 years, about $2.5 trillion and the lives of its citizens and soldiers, the US realized that retreating is the best possible decision, something they had been planning for a long time,” Rao says.,Challenges, Opportunities,A year on from Kabul’s fall, the situation in Afghanistan is unstable, unpredictable, and dangerous, both for ordinary Afghans and for countries in the region.,“After one year of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover, it is Afghans who are suffering more than any other regional or extra-regional states,” says Shreyas Deshmukh, a researcher with the National Security Program at Delhi Policy Group, an India-based think tank.,“Now it is evident that the Taliban has not given up its extremist tendencies and will continue to stick with its interpretation of the extremist Sharia-based governance model. They do not have any concrete ideas to govern the state because [the Taliban] is a primarily insurgent organization. Therefore, anti-social elements including other terrorist organizations, drug lords, and human traffickers [have been] taking advantage of this vacuum. During the initial months after the Taliban takeover, the level of violence was reduced but now there is an uptick, as anti-Taliban forces are regrouping,” Deshmukh notes.,AfghanistanTaliban Militants Fire Into Air to Disperse Women's Protest in Kabul - Videos13 August, 07:44 GMT,The researcher points to an important dilemma for the Taliban: whether to make concessions on its governance model in exchange for cooperation with, assistance from, and possible recognition from other countries. Such a decision, Deshmukh notes, would carry with it the risk of heightening divisions within the Taliban’s ranks and even raise the possibility of their government’s collapse and renewed civil war. “On the contrary, if they implement a strict interpretation of Sharia law while going against international norms then the country will once again become a haven for terrorist organizations,” he warns.,Dr. Rao concurs with this pessimistic appraisal of Afghanistan’s internal situation, noting that while the Taliban proved capable of taking over from the Western-backed government, “they do not know how to engage in governance per se, let alone [create an] inclusive government with minorities and women. It’s been a year of denial of women’s rights, media crackdown, and retaliatory killings amid mass hunger. Especially with the Taliban bringing back the feared Ministry for the Promotion of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice, enforcing the group’s austere interpretation of Islam, it is more unlikely that women or minorities might have a say in the government any time in the foreseeable future,” he says.,Worse yet, Rao says, if the situation continues to fester, it will cause “even more unrest, drugs and illegal weapons smuggling, bloody fights between various fundamentalist groups like ISIS-K and the Taliban; in short a situation that will remain a regional security [concern] with uncontrolled global ramifications.”,The scholar emphasizes that the international community has asked the Taliban to form an inclusive government, ensure the rights of women and minorities, and guarantee that Afghanistan will no longer serve as a launch pad for global terror operations. “Unless that happens, the trade or investment promised by China will not flow. It is important to note that even Russia and China, which share a better equation with the Taliban compared to the Western world, have not recognized their government,” Rao believes.,WorldLithium, Gold & Rare Earths: How China May Open the Door to New Business Opportunities for Afghans19 August 2021, 08:38 GMT,At the same time, the researcher notes that although the US withdrawal exacerbated regional chaos, landed sophisticated weapons in Taliban hands, and created a regional power vacuum, it also “created space for countries like Russia, China and Iran to play a far more decisive role in the region,” as Washington shifted its attention to Eastern Europe and China.,Deshmukh concurs. “The Taliban is not a designated terrorist organization by many states including the US. However, its leadership is under UNSC and US sanctions. The real question is, will the countries recognize the Taliban regime in the near future? China, Pakistan, Russia, and Qatar have given some signals that they might recognize the regime. However, it remains a risky business considering that the Taliban is continuing close cooperation with terrorist organizations like AQ, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and Lashkar-e-Taiba. Many of their leaders have taken safe haven in Afghanistan.”,“No country would like to align itself with this regime and recognize them, for now. Meanwhile, they will continue to engage with the Taliban to provide humanitarian assistance to Afghans, keep a tab on terrorist elements which could threaten the national interest of those countries, and further to reap some economic benefits from Afghanistan,” Deshmukh concludes.,* A group under United Nations sanctions for terrorist activities.,** A terrorist group outlawed in Russia and many other countries.。

四 | 事实证明，巴菲特是对的，因为随着银价上涨，美国政府最终于1965年停止发行了含银量高达90%的硬币。                   而如今，一位“巴菲特的模仿者”声称，他正在对有着“镍币”之称的5美分硬币做同样的事情……                    押宝镍与铜？                    是的，就在本月早些时候黄金和白银价格双双创下历史新高之际，现年35岁的金融从业者凯尔·米切尔(Kyle Mitchell)却并未完全“迷信”这两种贵金属，反而把目光放到了工业用途更为广泛的几类基本金属上——而且，他还采取了一条更是独特的途径来实现“保值”目标：囤积硬币。                   据米切尔介绍，他目前已经囤积了价值25万美元的美国铸币局铸造的五美分镍币——作为“通胀对冲工具”。他透露，目前他将所有这些硬币都存放在美国某处他150英亩农场的一个独立车库里。由于安全考虑，他拒绝透露具体位置。                   他在本周于X上“火出圈”的一条推文中分享道，这些硬币总共有500万枚，重量接近30吨。

五 | 目前，该推文的浏览量已经达到1480万，并且这个数字还在不断增加。                   根据美国铸币局的说法，现代美国5美分硬币由铜和镍两类金属制成，其成分是75%的铜和25%的镍。一枚5美分硬币重量恰好为5克，这意味着每枚硬币含有约3.75克铜和1.25克镍。                   根据美国铸币局的年度报告，2024财年，美国铸币局制造一枚5美分硬币的成本为14美分——这一数字包含了金属原本的价值和包括人工在内其他生产成本。其中，一枚硬币的金属价值约为6美分——本身也已超过了硬币的面值。这意味着米切尔价值25万美元的5美分硬币，其金属价值(铜和镍)已达到了29万美元。

六 |                    目前，铜的交易价格约为每公吨1万美元，镍的交易价格约为每吨1.5万美元。今年以来，铜价已累计上涨了约23%，而镍价则基本保持不变。                   米切尔的“大计划”                    据米切尔介绍，其囤积这些5美分硬币的过程缓慢——花费了他和一个助手团队四个多月的时间。他表示，为了在这段时间内获得如此大量的硬币，他支付了每小时7.5美元的报酬，雇人前往多家银行将美元纸币兑换成五美分硬币。                   “必须跑遍多家银行才能完成，”米切尔在接受采访时称，“虽然银行对个人兑换硬币数量没有明确限制，但多数银行库存有限——而且部分银行可能会限制大额硬币兑换，仅限账户持有人或收取额外手续费。”                    那么，米切尔究竟为何要花费大功夫囤积数百万5美分硬币呢？                    “这是对冲通胀的手段，”自称长期质疑法定货币价值的米切尔解释道。鉴于一枚实体5美分硬币熔化后的价值高于其面值，他认为这是相当稳妥的投资。“即便判断失误，硬币价值也永远是0.05美元，完全没有下行风险。”                    正如米切尔在X平台所言：“这是一场不对称的赌注——押注美国铸币局终将再次贬值货币，押注金属稀缺与通胀会持续侵蚀美元价值，押注终有一日一袋五美分硬币的‘熔毁’价值将超越流通价值。

七 | ”                    当然，这最终需要有人去熔毁这些硬币——而根据美国现行法规，这样做是非法的。美国法律规定“任何人不得出口、熔毁或处理任何5美分硬币”，熔毁分币也是非法的，此类违规行为可能导致1万美元罚款和/或最高五年的监禁。

八 |                    但米切尔似乎并不在意这些。米切尔指出，即便最坏情况下，他持有的25万美元5美分硬币仍将至少保持25万美元价值，且未来存在增值空间——例如当金属资源日益稀缺，或政府通过降低硬币实际镍含量进一步贬值五美分硬币时。                   诚然，25万美元的名义价值确实会随时间推移保持不变，但有人仍可能质疑：这笔资金本可用于更高效的投资渠道——更不用说通货膨胀将导致其购买力持续缩水。                   但米切尔对囤积的镍币仍持乐观态度。“最优质的投资永远是零风险且收益巨大，”他表示，“我期待美国最终停用镍币，届时这些收藏品可按三到五倍价格转售，让我轻松赚个百万美元。”                    截至2025年，尚未有政府机构或知名政客推动5美分硬币予以废除。不过关于停用1美分硬币的讨论已有所浮现，因此可以推测5美分硬币的命运也可能在未来受到质疑。                   在谈及1美分硬币时，米切尔还表示，自己曾收藏了2万磅1982年前铸造的铜质1美分硬币（含铜量超过90%）。这些巨量硬币与他的5美分硬币一同存放在同一个车库里。